Performance Characteristics of an Ensemble Machine Learning Model for Turbidity Prediction With Improved Data Imbalance

HyunSeok Yang; Jungsu Park

doi:10.17820/eri.2023.10.4.107

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2023 Vol.10, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Original Article

Performance Characteristics of an Ensemble Machine Learning Model for Turbidity Prediction With Improved Data Imbalance 데이터 불균형 개선에 따른 탁도 예측 앙상블 머신러닝 모형의 성능 특성

31 December 2023. pp. 107-115

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Abstract

High turbidity in source water can have adverse effects on water treatment plant operations and aquatic ecosystems, necessitating turbidity management. Consequently, research aimed at predicting river turbidity continues. This study developed a multi-class classification model for prediction of turbidity using LightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine), a representative ensemble machine learning algorithm. The model utilized data that was classified into four classes ranging from 1 to 4 based on turbidity, from low to high. The number of input data points used for analysis varied among classes, with 945, 763, 95, and 25 data points for classes 1 to 4, respectively. The developed model exhibited precisions of 0.85, 0.71, 0.26, and 0.30, as well as recalls of 0.82, 0.76, 0.19, and 0.60 for classes 1 to 4, respectively. The model tended to perform less effectively in the minority classes due to the limited data available for these classes. To address data imbalance, the SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique) algorithm was applied, resulting in improved model performance. For classes 1 to 4, the Precision and Recall of the improved model were 0.88, 0.71, 0.26, 0.25 and 0.79, 0.76, 0.38, 0.60, respectively. This demonstrated that alleviating data imbalance led to a significant enhancement in Recall of the model. Furthermore, to analyze the impact of differences in input data composition addressing the input data imbalance, input data was constructed with various ratios for each class, and the model performances were compared. The results indicate that an appropriate composition ratio for model input data improves the performance of the machine learning model.

Keywords

Ensemble machine Learning

LightGBM

SMOTE

Turbidity management

Water quality management

고 탁도의 원수는 정수장 운영 및 수 생태 환경에 부정적인 영향을 줄 수 있어 관리가 필요한 수질 인자이며, 하천의 탁도 예측을 통해 고 탁도의 원수의 효율적 관리를 수행하기 위해 관련분야에 대한 연구가 지속되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 대표적인 앙상블 머신러닝 알고리즘 중 하나인 LightGBM (light gradient boosting machine)을 이용하여 탁도를 예측하는 다중 분류 모형을 구축하였다. 모형의 구축을 위해 입력자료를 탁도값에 따라 탁도가 낮은 경우부터 높은 경우까지 4개의 class로 구분하였으며, class 1 - 4에 속하는 자료수는 각각 945개, 763개, 95개, 25개로 분류되었다. 구축한 모형의 class 1 - 4에 대한 정밀도 (Precision) 각각 0.85, 0.71, 0.26, 0.30 재현율 (Recall)은 각각 0.82, 0.76, 0.19, 0.60로 데이터 수가 적은 소수 class에서 상대적으로 모형이 성능이 낮은 경향을 보였다. 데이터 불균형을 해소하기 위해 over-sampling알고리즘 중 SMOTE를 적용한 결과 개선된 모형의 class 1 - 4에 대한 정밀도 및 재현율은 각각 0.88, 0.71, 0.26, 0.25 및 0.79, 0.76, 0.38, 0.60으로 데이터 불균형 해소를 통해 모형의 재현율이 크게 개선되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 데이터 구성비율이 모형성능에 미치는 영향에 대한 확인을 위하여 입력자료의 구성비를 다양하게 하고 각각의 자료로 구축된 모형의 결과를 비교하여 입력자료 구성비에 따른 모형성능의 차이를 분석하였으며, 모형 입력자료의 구성비의 적정한 산정을 통해 모형의 성능을 향상시킬 수 있음을 확인하였다.

키워드

앙상블 머신러닝

LightGBM

SMOTE

탁도 관리

수질 관리

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Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering
Publisher(Ko) :응용생태공학회
Journal Title :Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
Journal Title(Ko) :응용생태공학회 논문집
Volume : 10
No :4
Pages :107-115
Received Date : 2023-08-31
Revised Date : 2023-10-09
Accepted Date : 2023-10-24
DOI :https://doi.org/10.17820/eri.2023.10.4.107

Ecology and Resilient InfrastructureISSN:2288-8527(Online)응용생태공학회

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