A Trend Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Extreme Rainfall for Applying Rainfall Analysis to Small Development Areas

Wooyeol Jeon; Kwangjin Jang; Jungsoo Kim

doi:10.17820/eri.2025.12.1.001

All Issue

2025 Vol.12, Issue 1 Next Page

Original Article

A Trend Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Extreme Rainfall for Applying Rainfall Analysis to Small Development Areas 소규모 개발사업 유역의 강우분석 적용을 위한 극치강우자료의 장·단기 경향성 비교·분석

31 March 2025. pp. 1-8

PDF XML

Abstract

This study estimated random-time extreme rainfall for 10 minutes, 60 minutes, 120 minutes, 180 minutes, 1080 minutes, and 1440 minutes using rainfall data of 67 observatories governed by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and conducted a trend test using Mann-Kendall test and Sen test. As a result of the analysis, it was found that 16.4% to 19.4% out of 67 stations have the increasing trend in short-term durations (10 minutes, 60 minutes, 120 minutes, and 180 minutes). On the other hand, only 6% out of 67 stations have the increasing trend in long-term durations (1080 minutes and 1440 minutes). This study shows that non-stationary should be considered to estimate the probability rainfall using short-term rainfall data in small development areas.

Keywords

Extreme rainfall

Mann-Kendall test

Sen test

Small development areas

Trend analysis

본 연구에서는 기상청 관할 67개 관측소의 시강우자료를 활용하여 10분, 60분, 120분, 180분, 1080분, 1440분에 대한 임의시간 최대강우량 자료를 구축하였으며, Mann- Kendall test와 Sen test를 통한 경향성 검정을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 단기 강우지속기간(10분, 60분, 120분, 180분)에서는 약 16.4%~19.4%에 해당하는 지점에서 강우량이 뚜렷한 증가 경향성이 있는 것으로 나타난 반면, 장기 강우지속기간에서는 1080분과 1440분 지속기간 모두 약 6%에 해당하는 4개 지점에서만 증가 경향성이 나타났다. 본 연구를 통해 소규모 유역을 대상으로 단기 강우지속기간 자료를 활용하여 확률강우량을 산정할 경우 실무적 차원의 비정상성을 고려해야할 필요성을 확인할 수 있었다.

키워드

극치강우자료

Mann-Kendall test

Sen test

소규모유역

경향성 분석

References

Gilbert, R.O. 1987. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. John Willy & Sons. Inc.

Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R., and Smith, R.A. 1982. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Water Resources Research 18: 107-121.

10.1029/WR018i001p00107

Kim, B.S. and Ha, S.Y. 2013. The impact assessment of climate change on design flood in Mihochen basin based on the representative concentration pathway climate change scenario. Journal of Wetlands Research 15: 105-114.

10.17663/JWR.2013.15.1.105

Kim, D.J., Kang, D.G., Park, J.H., Kim, J.H., and Kim, Y.S. 2021. Change in the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation due to climate change. Korean Journal of Agricultural Forest Meteorology 23: 424-433

Kwon, Y.M., Park, J.W., and Kim, T.W. 2009. Estimation of design rainfalls considering an increasing trend in rainfall data. KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research 29: 131-139

Oh, J.S., Kim, B.S., Kim, H.S., and Seoh, B.H. 2004. Trend Detection of Serially Correlated Hydrologic Series. Journal of Korean Wetlands Society 6: 35-43

Ryu, Y.J., Shin, H.J., Kim, S.Y., and Heo, J.H. 2013. Power test of trend analysis using simulation experiment. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 46: 219-227

10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.3.219

Seo, L., Choi, M.H., and Kim, T.W. 2010. Outlook for temporal variation of trend Embedded in extreme rainfall time series. Journal of Wetlands Research 12: 13-23.

Yoon, S.K. and Moon, Y.I. 2014. The recent increasing trends of exceedance rainfall thresholds over the Korean major cities. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers 34: 117-133.

10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.1.0117

Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering
Publisher(Ko) :응용생태공학회
Journal Title :Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
Journal Title(Ko) :응용생태공학회 논문집
Volume : 12
No :1
Pages :1-8
Received Date : 2025-02-27
Revised Date : 2025-03-03
Accepted Date : 2025-03-03
DOI :https://doi.org/10.17820/eri.2025.12.1.001

Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure ISSN:2288-8527(Online) 응용생태공학회 논문집

All Issue