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2026 Vol.13, Issue 3 Preview Page
Development of a Finite-element-based Probabilistic Seepage Analysis Code for River Levee Fragility Assessment

하천제방 침투 취약도 평가를 위한 유한요소 기반 확률해석 코드 개발

Du Han Lee1
,
Seongwook Choi2*
이 두한1
,
최 성욱2*
1Senior Research Fellow, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang 10223, Korea
2Head Researcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang 10223, Korea
1한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 선임연구위원
2한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 수석연구원
*Corresponding Author
30 September 2026. pp. 197-210
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Abstract

This study developed KSeep2D-PF, a finite-element-based probabilistic seepage analysis code for assessing river levee fragility while accounting for uncertainty in soil hydraulic properties. The code integrates two-dimensional saturated-unsaturated seepage analysis, sampling of layer-specific saturated hydraulic conductivity, repeated simulations, limit-state evaluation based on the maximum upward exit gradient, and sample-level parallel processing. Verification using steady and transient seepage problems demonstrated accuracy comparable to analytical or reference solutions and SEEP/W results. For the IBH11 section of the Miho River levee, the limit-state exceedance probability increased from 0.005 to 0.615 as the river stage increased. Across 17 levee sections, the exceedance probability at the highest evaluated river stage for each section ranged from 0.000 to 0.790. Some sections exhibited substantial exceedance probabilities even when the deterministic factor of safety satisfied the required criterion, demonstrating the importance of probabilistic evaluation. The estimated speedup using 18 worker processes ranged from 14.38 to 15.86. KSeep2D-PF provides an integrated workflow from probabilistic input generation to seepage analysis, limit-state evaluation, and statistical aggregation. The code is expected to complement conventional deterministic assessments and facilitate the practical application of probabilistic seepage safety evaluation for river levees in Korea.

Keywords
Finite element analysis
Probabilistic analysis
River levee
Saturated-unsaturated flow
Seepage fragility

본 연구에서는 지반 수리특성의 불확실성을 고려하여 하천제방의 침투 취약도를 평가할 수 있는 유한요소 기반 확률론적 침투해석 코드 KSeep2D-PF를 개발하였다. 개발 코드는 2차원 포화·불포화 침투해석, 지층별 포화투수계수의 표본 생성, 반복해석, 최대 상향 유출동수경사에 따른 한계상태 판정 및 표본 단위 병렬처리를 통합한다. 정상·비정상 침투 검증문제에 적용한 결과, 기준해 및 SEEP/W와 유사한 수준의 정확도를 확인하였다. 미호강 IBH11 단면에서는 외수위 상승에 따라 한계상태 초과확률이 0.005에서 0.615로 증가하였으며, 17개 단면의 최고 검토수위에서는 0.000–0.790의 범위로 나타났다. 일부 단면에서는 결정론적 안전율이 요구기준을 만족하더라도 유의한 초과확률이 산정되어 확률론적 평가의 필요성이 확인되었다. 또한 18개 작업자 프로세스를 적용한 추정 속도향상비는 14.38–15.86배로 나타났다. 개발 코드는 확률 입력 생성부터 침투해석, 한계상태 판정 및 결과 집계까지 일관되게 수행할 수 있으며, 국내 하천제방 실무에서 결정론적 평가를 보완하고 확률기반 침투 안전성 평가의 적용을 활성화하는 데 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
유한요소 해석
확률론적 해석
하천제방
포화·불포화 흐름
침투 취약도
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering
  • Publisher(Ko) :응용생태공학회
  • Journal Title :Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
  • Journal Title(Ko) :응용생태공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 13
  • No :3
  • Pages :197-210
  • Received Date : 2026-10-17
  • Revised Date : 2026-09-21
  • Accepted Date : 2026-09-21
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.17820/eri.2026.13.3.197
Journal Informaiton Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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