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2025 Vol.12, Issue 4 Preview Page

Original Article

Development of a Methodology for Calculating Rainfall Thresholds to Establish Warning Criteria for River Impact Based Forecast

하천 영향예보 발령기준 설정을 위한 영향한계강우량 산정기법 개발

Youngseok Song1
,
Hyoungsub Shin2
,
Byungsik Kim3
,
Yoonkyung Park4*
송 영석1
,
신 형섭2
,
김 병식3
,
박 윤경4*
1Professor, Department of Fire and Disaster Prevention, Konkuk University, Chungju 27478, Korea
2President, Environment Remotesensing Institute solution (ERI solution), Gumi 39337, Korea
3Professor, Department of Electronic and AI System Engineering / Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University, Samcheok 25913, Korea
4Senior Researcher, Department of Environmental Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang 10223, Korea
1건국대학교 소방방재융합학과 교수
2주식회사 이알아이솔루션 대표이사
3국립 강원대학교 전자·AI시스템공학과/방재전문대학원 교수
4한국건설기술연구원 환경연본부 수석연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2025. pp. 311-319
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Abstract

This study developed an analytical method for determining the warning criteria of river impact based forecasts capable of early prediction of flood damage targeting rivers, and applied it to the Gangwon Province region. The rainfall threshold for a 3-hour duration was calculated, and stage-based impact based forecast issuance criteria were proposed, linking the river's design frequency and planned flood level. Analysis results showed that the rainfall threshold, considering the design frequency of rivers located in Gangwon Province, ranged from 114 mm to 232 mm and increased nonlinearly as the design frequency increased. Relatively higher rainfall threshold amounts were calculated for the east coast and mountainous terrain areas. Furthermore, for the four-stage impact based forecast issuance criteria, the rainfall threshold for a 3-hour duration was analyzed as follows: Concern (24 mm ~ 35 mm), Caution (39 mm ~ 58 mm), Warning (61 mm ~ 79 mm), and Severe (97 mm ~ 129 mm). The results of this study strategically propose impact based forecast issuance criteria for rivers by considering rainfall-runoff-water level relationships. This confirms the feasibility of an impact based forecast system that incorporates hydrological and topographical characteristics, moving beyond rainfall-centric heavy rain forecasts. Future research comparing and validating these findings against actual flood damage cases is expected to enhance the reliability of the analytical methods and enable standardization of impact based forecast criteria

Keywords
Design frequency
Heavy rain forecast
Impact based forecast
Rainfall threshold
River

본 연구에서는 하천을 대상으로 침수피해를 조기에 예측할 수 있는 하천 영향예보 발령기준의 분석방법을 개발하고 강원도 지역을 대상으로 분석하였다. 지속시간 3시간에 대한 영향한계강우량을 산정하고 하천의 설계빈도와 계획홍수위를 연계한 단계별 영향예보 발령기준을 제시하였다. 분석결과 강원도에 위치한 하천의 설계빈도를 고려한 영향한계강우량은 114 mm ~ 232 mm의 범위가 분석되었으며 설계빈도가 증가할수록 비선형적으로 증가하였다. 동해안 및 산악지형 지역에서 영향 한계강우량이 상대적으로 높게 산정되다. 또한, 영향예보의 4단계 발령기준에 대하여 지속시간 3시간의 영향한계강우량을 관심, 24 mm ~ 35 mm, 주의 39 mm ~ 58 mm, 경계 61 mm, ~ 79 mm, 심각 97 mm ~ 129 mm이 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 강우-유출-수위를 고려하여 하천의 영향예보의 발령기준을 정략적으로 제시함으로써 강우량 중심의 호우예보에서 수문학적 및 지형적 특성을 고려한 영향예보 체계의 가능성을 확인하였다. 향후 연구에서 실제 침수피해 사례와 비교 검증한다면 분석방법에 대한 신뢰성 향상과 영향예보의 기준 표준화가 가능할 것으로 예상된다.

키워드
설계빈도
호우예보
영향예보
영향한계강우량
하천
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering
  • Publisher(Ko) :응용생태공학회
  • Journal Title :Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
  • Journal Title(Ko) :응용생태공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 12
  • No :4
  • Pages :311-319
  • Received Date : 2025-11-18
  • Revised Date : 2025-12-01
  • Accepted Date : 2025-12-01
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.17820/eri.2025.12.4.311
Journal Informaiton Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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