Prediction of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum under SSP scenarios

Young-Ju Oh; Myung-Hyun Kim; Soon-Kun Choi; Min-Kyeong Kim; Jinu Eo; So-Jin Yeob; Jeong Hwan Bang; Yong Ho Lee

doi:10.17820/eri.2021.8.3.154

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2021 Vol.8, Issue 3 Preview Page

Original Article

Prediction of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum under SSP scenarios SSPs 시나리오에 따른 미국쥐손이 적합 서식지 분포 예측

30 September 2021. pp. 154-163

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Abstract

This study was carried out to identify the factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum, which was naturalized in South Korea, and to predict the changes of distribution in the future. We collected occurrence data of G. carolinianum at 68 sites in South Korea, and applied the MaxEnt model under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Precipitation seasonality (bio15), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), and mean temperature of driest quarter (bio09) had high contribution for potential distribution of G. carolinianum. According to climate change scenarios, high suitable habitats of G. carolinianum occupied 6.43% of the land of South Korea in historical period (1981~2010), and 92.60% under SSP2-4.5, and 98.36% undr SSP5-8.5 in far future (2071~2100).

Keywords

Agroecosytem

Climate change

Naturalized plant

MaxEnt

SSPs

본 연구는 최근 국내에 귀화식물로 기록된 미국쥐손이의 적합 서식지의 분포에 영향을 미치는 요인을 파악하고, 미래의 변화를 예측하고자 수행되었다. 전국을 대상으로 총 68개 지점에서 미국쥐손이의 출연 자료를 수집하고 MaxEnt 모델을 적용하여 기준년대(1981~2010)와 기후시나리오에 따른 미래의 적합 서식지 분포를 예측했다. 미국쥐손이의 분포에는 강수량 계절성(bio15), 가장 따뜻한 분기의 평균기온(bio10), 가장 건조한 분기의 평균기온(bio09)가 크게 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화에 따라 미국쥐손이의 높은 수준의 적합 서식지는 기준년도에 우리나라 면적의 6.43%를 차지하였고, 먼미래(2071~2100)에는 SSP2-4.5 하에서 92.60%까지, SSP5-4.8 하에서 98.36%까지 차지하는 것으로 예측되었다.

키워드

농업생태계

기후변화

귀화식물

MaxEnt

SSPs

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Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering
Publisher(Ko) :응용생태공학회
Journal Title :Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
Journal Title(Ko) :응용생태공학회 논문집
Volume : 8
No :3
Pages :154-163
Received Date : 2021-09-17
Revised Date : 2021-10-01
Accepted Date : 2021-10-01
DOI :https://doi.org/10.17820/eri.2021.8.3.154

Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure ISSN:2288-8527(Online) 응용생태공학회 논문집

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